"Wavering former Conservative voters will decide the next election."
The Conservative Party has recently suffered a polling lead collapse that has resulted in a six to seven deficit to the Labour Party (see figure one). In the last quarter of 2021, the Conservative Party has suffered a loss of confidence that likely has largely contributed to their declining polling scores. With the whiff of corruption around government business coinciding with multiple gaffs around the Prime Minister’s conduct, alongside the problem of rising inflation the government’s once stable lead has been translated into a clear lead for Labour. Yet, the crucial question is where have these Conservative voters gone? If former Conservative-leaning voters have translated support to the Labour Party then the last quarter of 2021 could represent a defining changing moment in British politics where Labour’s inability to cut through to these voters since 2010 is ended. But, if these voters have shifted towards other parties, or no party as they are undecided, this change in polling fortunes instead could represent mid-term blues and mean that the next general election for both main parties is still very up for grabs.
The Remain-Leave divide:
One clear sign that key voters are now prepared to ditch the Conservative Party for Labour would be Leave voters showing increasing signs of backing Labour. In the 2019 election, it was clear Labour lost voters in areas that heavily voted to Leave the EU, and therefore, likely lost many leave voters in key seats. Consequently, if Labour is to win back most of these seats it would be expected that Labour would gain amongst Leave voters. Figure two shows that Labour has not majorly gained amongst these voters. Figure two shows that whilst Labour support amongst leave voters has ebbed and flowed it has stayed around the 20% mark since the 2019 general election result. Further, Labour’s recent gains have arisen mostly through Remain voters. Yet, it should be noted that this group of voters is giving Labour only slightly increased support from the 2019 election and their current level of support is still smaller than it was when Labour was doing well in the early days of Starmer, mid-2020. This would also indicate that the loss of Conservative support largely has not come Labour’s way as there is no evidence that new voters are increasing Labour support as the proportion of voters from Leave and Remain groupings has been fairly consistent since the 2019 election. Instead, this would indicate that the Tories’ lost voters are currently placing their support elsewhere, most likely with no party as they wait to see which main party deserves their support.
Is the Age barrier being overcome?
A core barrier for Labour being able to overtake the Conservative Party has been their inability to win over enough older voters, defined as 55 and over. Figure three shows that Labour has made some inroads amongst older voters according to the polls. Within the last year, Labour has increased their polling rating by 10%, indicating a good increase amongst some older voters. However, some caution should be added as within the last year this support has been volatile. Moreover, these gains have only added a few new voters to the Labour Party base as Labour has lost support from younger voters, some of whom may have shifted to the Lib-Dems, who have also recently improved their polling ratings. Therefore, whilst figure three shows some swings towards Labour it also shows that these gains are limited and it is likely some voters Labour needs to win over are undecided or are intending to vote for a smaller party rather than transitioning to Labour. This would indicate whilst Labour’s poll lead is good it might not be as strong as headline figures suggest as undecided and smaller party voters may not come over to them and if the Tories secure these voters then the Conservatives would be able to reassert their superior polling position.
The qualification divide:
The qualification gap is another divide that Labour has struggled to overcome in recent years. Individuals with lower, or no, qualifications have been increasingly inclined to back the Conservative Party, with some of these voters switching directly from Labour to Conservative, especially in 2019. Figure four shows that the Conservative Party has lost amongst both lower qualified and highly qualified voters, at roughly a similar rate. However, the party is still more reliant on voters with fewer qualifications. Interestingly, figure four also shows Labour has gained amongst both education groups, again at roughly the same rate. This would indicate that Labour is having some success in securing voting groups they need to win back in order to perform much better in the next general election. Although it is not clear how much of these gains are due to former Conservative less qualified voters switching to Labour or being undecided, this finding is still encouraging for Labour.
Class Trends:
The qualification gap is another divide that Labour has struggled to overcome in recent years. Individuals with lower, or no, qualifications have been increasingly inclined to back the Conservative Party, with some of these voters switching directly from Labour to Conservative, especially in 2019. Figure four shows that the Conservative Party has lost amongst both lower qualified and highly qualified voters, at roughly a similar rate. However, the party is still more reliant on voters with fewer qualifications. Interestingly, figure four also shows Labour has gained amongst both education groups, again at roughly the same rate. This would indicate that Labour is having some success in securing voting groups they need to win back in order to perform much better in the next general election. Although it is not clear how much of these gains are due to former Conservative less qualified voters switching to Labour or being undecided, this finding is still encouraging for Labour.
Conservative to Labour switchers:
According to YouGov’s headline polls in December, Labour has been able to win over 10% of voters who voted Conservative in 2019. This would indicate a potential that Labour’s poll lead is strong and could last into the next election. However, the headlines of polls can be misleading. One reason for this is because it eliminates undecided voters, and therefore, overinflates the change in voter switching as the polling forecast predicted works upon a smaller sample than the amount of people polled who will vote. Therefore, if there are many undecided voters who later swing towards one of the main parties this could strengthen Labour’s lead or eliminate it. This is important as the analysis presented so far has shown Labour has not substantially increased support amongst key groups they lost in 2019, presenting some question as to why Labour has been able to carve out a decent polling lead after being quite far behind the Tories only a couple of months ago.
When keeping polled undecided voters, figure six demonstrates that there is a large proportion of 2019 Conservative voters who now state they are unsure of who to support. According to YouGov, in December between one in 5 and one in four former Conservative voters were now undecided. This is incredibly important as if these voters were to come back to the Conservatives then Labour’s lead would quickly evaporate, indicating Labour’s lead is not yet secure as they have yet to win over enough wavering 2019 Conservative voters.
When focusing on where the Labour vote has flowed, figure seven shows that Labour has partly been able to carve out a polling lead through being able to keep more of their 2019 base intact, whilst also gaining Green and Lib-Dem voters. Again, figure seven outlines how Labour has struggled to gain 2019 Conservative voters, with the party only having gained 5% of these voters in the December polls. Consequently, this shows whilst Labour’s lead is good it is not concrete as they have not yet won over enough former Conservative wavering voters to be sure of them having a poll lead going into the next general election campaign.
Conclusion:
Overall, it can be said that whilst the Conservative Party is still more reliant on voters they gained in 2019 than historically has been the case, the party is mainly losing its lead due to these voters losing confidence in the government. The Conservative Party is still more reliant on older, less educated working-class leave groupings, but it is these very voters who are increasingly unsure whether or not to back the government. Whilst it is likely that fairly few of these voters have switched their support to Labour, these voters are not confident enough in the government to commit their support to them.
Therefore, the government being implicated in scandals and political gaffs within the last couple of months may have caused their base to have withdrawn their support in preparation to switch their allegiance if the government does not improve its performance. As these wavering voters are deciding on whether the government deserves their continued support, Labour has been able to win over higher qualified professional Remain voters and a few former Conservative voters who have lost trust with the government, thus giving Labour a new polling lead.
Crucially, this has now created a political landscape where Labour can win the next election and become the largest party. Whether they do or not will likely be determined by wavering 2019 Tory voters. If most of these voters renew their trust in the government they the Conservatives will regain their polling lead. Alternatively, if these voters abandon their new political home and give support to Labour then Labour will be able to win the next general election.
Author: James Prentice, article first published: 28/12/2021.
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